Chamath’s claim had two parts: (1) late‑stage private tech names like Gopuff, Canva, Klarna, Discord, Ripple, Grammarly “have to” be marked down ~15–40% immediately as rates rise, and (2) if they keep growing strongly, they can recover to prior peak valuations within about 18 months of that markdown.

What actually happened with the concrete examples he cited:

• Klarna – Peak valuation was about $45.6B in June 2021. By July 2022 it raised at $6.7B, an ~85% markdown, far beyond the 15–40% range. Even by 2025 its IPO valuation talk/targets are only around $12.5–15B, still far below the $45.6B peak, years after the markdown. (cnbc.com)
• Gopuff – Valued around $15B in 2021. Subsequent financing in 2025 values it at about $8.5B, a drop of roughly 40–45%, and it has not returned to the prior peak more than three years later. (ft.com)
• Canva – Valued at $40B in 2021. Blackbird Ventures marked its position down ~36% to $25.6B in mid‑2022, and T. Rowe Price later marked its stake down roughly 67.6%, again deeper than Chamath’s 15–40% band. Canva only re‑attained and then exceeded the prior peak via secondary/staff share sales at around $42B in 2025—roughly three to four years after the 2021 peak and about three years after the first markdown, not within 18 months. (startupdaily.net)
• Discord – Raised at a $15B valuation in 2021. By mid‑2023, Fidelity had marked its holdings in Discord down about 47% from cost, with no public evidence that valuations had returned to the 2021 peak within 18 months of the markdown. (techcrunch.com)
• Grammarly – Was valued at $13B in 2021; later coverage still references that 2021 figure, and recent financings are structured as non‑dilutive debt rather than new equity rounds, suggesting no clear equity repricing back to a meaningfully higher valuation. There is also no public indication of a clean 15–40% markdown then full recovery inside 18 months. (reuters.com)
• Ripple – Valued at about $15B in an early‑2022 buyback, then referenced around $11.3B in early 2024, implying a markdown of roughly 25%. Ripple does eventually raise at a $40B valuation in 2025, but that recovery occurs several years after the 2022 valuation event, not within an 18‑month window. (research.contrary.com)

In the broader late‑stage market, mutual‑fund and VC markdowns in 2022–2023 were often significantly steeper than 40%, and many unicorns remained well below 2021 peak valuations through at least late 2023, despite continued revenue growth at a number of them. (business2community.com)

So:

• The size of the required markdowns was generally larger than his 15–40% range for the emblematic names he mentioned.
• The timeline for recovery was materially off: even strong performers like Canva and Ripple only got back to or above their prior peaks years later, while others (Klarna, Gopuff, Discord) still haven’t as of late 2025.

Because both the magnitude and the 18‑month recovery path were meaningfully wrong for the very companies cited as examples, the prediction overall is best classified as wrong.