Chamath @ 00:22:18Inconclusive
economymarketsclimate
Investments made in essentially any form of electricity production in the United States during the mid‑2020s will, over the subsequent 20 years (through roughly 2045), generate positive returns, as the marginal cost of energy trends toward zero.
I think the marginal cost of energy has to go to zero, which means that any single way you can get your hands on electricity production is a winning trade over the next 20 years in the United States.View on YouTube
Explanation
The prediction is explicitly about a ~20‑year horizon: from the “next 20 years” after the mid‑2020s (i.e., roughly through 2045). As of November 30, 2025, less than one year has passed since the podcast release date (July 4, 2025), leaving about 19 more years until the prediction’s time window is complete. Because the claim concerns long‑term investment performance across that entire period, it cannot yet be evaluated—neither the full trajectory of U.S. electricity production investments nor the long‑run trend of marginal energy costs toward zero is observable for 2045. Therefore, the correct status today is that it’s too early to tell whether the prediction is right or wrong.