Evidence since 2022 shows exactly the kind of prolonged, complex unwinding of rate‑ and liquidity‑driven distortions that Chamath predicted.

From 2022 onward, major central banks reversed more than a decade of ultra‑low rates and QE. The Fed raised its policy rate from near zero in early 2022 to about 5.25–5.50% by July 2023 and began quantitative tightening in June 2022, shrinking its balance sheet by over $2 trillion from a ~$9T peak. A UN analysis explicitly describes this as an unwinding of QE that injected trillions in liquidity and notes that this process is proving particularly challenging.(twn.my)

This policy shift precipitated a broad 2022 bear market: global equity indices fell sharply, with the S&P 500 down 19% and the Nasdaq down 33% for the year, driven by inflation and aggressive rate hikes. Commentators widely framed this as the popping of an “everything bubble” inflated by years of easy money.(en.wikipedia.org)

The adjustment has clearly been multi‑year rather than a brief shock. Late‑stage venture and private tech have gone through sustained markdowns and funding contraction: late‑stage VC deal volume and capital in 2023 were far below the 2021 peak and even below 2019 levels. Global venture funding in 2023 fell about 42% year‑on‑year, with growth‑stage valuations described as “down massively” from 2021; major crossover investors like Tiger Global and SoftBank slashed activity and marked down portfolios (Tiger cutting startup values by roughly a third, SoftBank reporting multi‑billion‑dollar write‑downs).(carta.com)

Related markets that epitomized the bubble period also went through extended unwinds. The SPAC boom of 2020–2021 collapsed in 2022–2023, with SPAC IPO counts and proceeds dropping by an order of magnitude, while IPO activity and exits overall fell to their lowest levels since the financial crisis and, even by 2024–2025, remained far below 2021 despite a partial recovery.(redbud.vc)

Real‑asset markets show a similarly drawn‑out adjustment: rapid Fed hikes doubled U.S. mortgage rates and severely distorted the housing market, while commercial property in Europe has logged multiple consecutive years of price declines linked to higher rates and financing stress, still falling in 2024.(forbes.com)

By late 2025, the Fed is only just preparing to stop QT after reducing its balance sheet to about $6.6–$6.7T, with analysts noting that the pandemic‑era “excess liquidity” in facilities like the reverse repo has largely been drained.(reuters.com) This ongoing policy normalization and the multi‑year repricing in public, private, and real‑asset markets fit Chamath’s description of “the beginning of a very complicated process of unwinding the distortion” created in the prior few years of ultra‑easy money.

Given this evidence, the prediction that 2022 would mark the start of a prolonged, complex unwinding of those distortions is best judged as right.