Chamath @ 00:18:59Wrong
politics
In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. running as an independent will surpass Ross Perot’s 19% popular vote share from 1992, due to greater voter fragmentation and protest sentiment.
Because the country is much more fragmented today. There's a lot more protest votes today. There's just a lot of reasons where RFK can garner a lot of support and build a plurality among centrists. That wasn't possible when Perot was running, because when he ran, you have to you have to remember, like the country was in a very different place psychologically than it is right now.View on YouTube
Explanation
Official 2024 results show Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received about 756,000 votes, roughly 0.48–0.49% of the national popular vote.(en.wikipedia.org) In contrast, Ross Perot in 1992 won about 19.7 million votes, or 18.9% of the popular vote.(presidency.ucsb.edu) Since Kennedy’s share was far below Perot’s 18.9%, he did not come close to surpassing Perot’s performance, so the prediction that he would exceed Perot’s 19% popular-vote level is clearly falsified.