Evidence suggests Chamath’s call was broadly correct in direction and relative severity.

1. Did Europe enter a recession first?
Revised Eurostat data show the euro area had two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth: output fell 0.1% in Q4 2022 and 0.1% in Q1 2023, which meets the usual definition of a technical recession.(euronews.com) Reporting at the time noted that this reflected the hit from the energy shock and cost‑of‑living crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.(euronews.com) This timing (late 2022–early 2023) fits his “canary in the coal mine” framing.

2. How did the U.S. fare over the same period?
The U.S. saw two negative GDP quarters in early 2022, but employment remained very strong and major economists and officials argued the U.S. was not in a recession.(the-independent.com) On an annual basis, U.S. real GDP grew 2.5% in 2022 and 2.9% in 2023, with unemployment around mid‑3%—hardly a deep downturn.(en.wikipedia.org) In the specific period when the euro area slipped into recession (Q4 2022–Q1 2023), the U.S. economy continued to expand, and coverage contrasted the eurozone’s contraction with continued positive growth in the U.S.(theguardian.com) That is consistent with his claim that Europe would suffer more.

3. Was Europe’s downturn “much more” severe than the U.S.?
While the euro‑area recession was mild in terms of headline GDP (small negative quarters), Europe’s overall performance was clearly weaker than that of the U.S.:

• The IMF projected euro‑area growth to “bottom out” at 0.7% in 2023, versus much stronger U.S. growth.(imf.org)
• Germany, the largest European economy, contracted by about 0.3% in 2023 and was described as the worst‑performing major economy that year.(en.wikipedia.org)
• Later IMF and press analyses repeatedly highlight a widening growth gap, with the U.S. outpacing a stagnating euro area and broader Europe.(imf.org)

So, Europe indeed entered a recession in late 2022–early 2023, tied to the energy shock and inflation, while the U.S. experienced only a slowdown and continued to grow. Europe’s performance was clearly weaker, even if the recession was relatively shallow by historical standards. That makes Chamath’s prediction directionally and comparatively right.