Chamath said on March 26, 2022 that “the markets are mostly moving upwards for the short term” and then “volatility is going to come back.”

Looking at broad U.S. equity indices after that date:

• The S&P 500 weekly closes show 4,543 on March 25, 2022 (the day before the podcast release) and then 4,545 on April 1, followed by a steady slide to 4,488 (Apr 8), 4,393 (Apr 15), 4,272 (Apr 22), and 4,132 (Apr 29), continuing downward into May and June. This is a clear downtrend starting almost immediately after late March, not a period where markets were “mostly moving upwards.” (fedprimerate.com)
• On a monthly basis, the S&P 500 returned +3.83% in March 2022, but then -8.99% in April, roughly flat in May (+0.04%), and -8.78% in June. (statmuse.com) Over the “next few weeks to a few months” after late March, the index was predominantly down or flat.
• The tech‑heavy Nasdaq did even worse, with monthly returns of +3.67% in March but then -13.56% in April, -2.03% in May, and -9.43% in June 2022, reflecting a sharp and sustained selloff rather than a short‑term upward trend. (statmuse.com)
• A Business Insider summary of the March 2022 “death cross” notes that after that signal in March 2022, the S&P 500 went on to fall about 16% and the Nasdaq about 27%, underscoring that the subsequent move was decisively downward. (businessinsider.com)

On volatility, the Cboe VIX Index remained elevated as the market slid into a >20% drawdown by June 30, 2022, when the S&P 500 was down about 20.5% over six months and the VIX closed at 28.71, well above its long‑run average. (cboe.com) But this was continuation of high volatility rather than a calm “upward” period followed by volatility “coming back.”

Because the core, time‑bounded part of his prediction—that broad equity markets would mostly trend upward in the immediate short term (weeks to a few months) starting from late March 2022—was not borne out (they mostly went down and entered a bear market instead), the prediction is best classified as wrong, even though volatility indeed remained or became elevated.