Available data show that Twitter/X’s economic value per active user has fallen substantially since Elon Musk’s 2022 acquisition, rather than doubling or tripling.

Before and around the acquisition, Twitter generated about $5 billion of revenue in 2021 and $4.4 billion in 2022, with roughly 220–260 million monetizable daily active users (mDAU), implying annual revenue per active user on the order of low‑$20s. (prioridata.com) By October 2022, mDAU was reported around 258 million. (prioridata.com)

After the acquisition, revenue dropped sharply while user counts were roughly flat. Estimates show revenue falling to about $2.9 billion in 2023 and $2.5 billion in 2024, a roughly 40–50% decline from 2021–2022 levels, while daily active users hovered in the mid‑200‑million range (e.g., ~245 million in September 2023 vs. 258 million in October 2022). (prioridata.com) This implies that revenue (a proxy for economic value) per active user has roughly halved instead of doubling or tripling.

Valuation-based measures tell the same story. Musk bought Twitter for about $44 billion in October 2022. (nasdaq.com) Fidelity’s repeated markdowns of its private stake imply that by late 2023 X was valued around $19 billion and by 2024 about $9–10 billion, i.e., roughly 20–45% of the acquisition value. (nasdaq.com) With the user base roughly stable or larger over this period, valuation per user has clearly fallen, not increased by 2–3x. Taken together, both business performance and inferred market valuation per user contradict Chamath’s prediction that the economic value per MAU would double or triple within a few years after Musk’s takeover.