Why this is wrong

Chamath predicted on Nov 4, 2020 that “we’re going to know tomorrow” who won the 2020 U.S. presidential election—i.e., that the winner would be known by the end of November 4, 2020 (the day after Election Day).

What actually happened:

• Election Day was Tuesday, November 3, 2020.
• As of the end of Wednesday, November 4, 2020, key states (including Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina) were still not called, and major news organizations were reporting that the race remained undecided and too close in several states, with large numbers of mail-in ballots still being counted.
• Major U.S. networks and the Associated Press did not project Joe Biden as the winner until Saturday, November 7, 2020, when Pennsylvania was called for Biden, giving him enough projected Electoral College votes to win. At that point, outlets widely reported that Biden had won the presidency.

Because the race was not called and there was no broadly accepted “known” winner by the end of November 4, 2020, Chamath’s prediction that “we’re going to know tomorrow” did not come true.