Summary
Chamath’s prediction was directionally right overall. Since 2020, there has been:

1. Sustained, large-scale migration of people from heavily Democratic, high‑tax states to Republican‑run, lower‑tax states.

   • Census data for April 1, 2020–July 1, 2024 show the biggest net domestic in‑migration in states like Florida, Texas, North Carolina, South Carolina, Arizona, Tennessee, Georgia, Idaho, Alabama, Oklahoma—nearly all Republican‑governed or strongly Republican at the state level. The largest net domestic out‑migration is from California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Maryland, D.C., all deep‑blue jurisdictions. (en.wikipedia.org)
   • California is a clear example: it had large net domestic outflows in 2021–2023 (over 400,000 net movers out in 2021 alone), mostly to states like Texas, Arizona, Nevada, Idaho, Utah, with analysts noting that high cost of living, taxes, crime, and politics are key push factors. High‑income Californians disproportionately head to no‑income‑tax states such as Texas and Florida. (en.wikipedia.org)
   • A New York Times data project on post‑2020 moves (“Millions of Movers Reveal American Polarization in Action”) found that movers are increasingly self‑sorting by politics, leaving more mixed areas for places that are more clearly red or blue; commentators summarize that many movers from blue states end up in redder, lower‑regulation Sun Belt destinations. (naree.squarespace.com)
   • Editorial analysis (e.g., The Wall Street Journal, summarized in an AP editorial roundup) now explicitly warns that population flight from Democratic‑led states to Republican‑led ones could cost Democrats up to 10 House seats after 2030—precisely the partisan demographic effect Chamath suggested. (apnews.com)

2. A parallel wave of business and headquarters relocations from blue to red, low‑tax states.

   • Research on the “California exodus” finds that California had the highest net outflow of domestic companies in the U.S. from 2015–2025, with Texas, Florida, Tennessee, and North Carolina the main destinations. Since 2019 more than 200 firms have left California; examples include Charles Schwab, Oracle, Palantir, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Chevron, and major Elon Musk ventures Tesla and SpaceX, which moved their headquarters to Texas. Analysts highlight taxes and regulation as central reasons. (en.wikipedia.org)
   • Other blue‑state business moves fit the same pattern: Caterpillar announced in 2022 it was relocating its global HQ from Illinois to the Dallas–Fort Worth area in Texas, explicitly framing the move as a strategic fit for growth. (caterpillar.com)
   • A broader relocation of financial and exchange infrastructure is underway: for instance, the NYSE plans to move its 143‑year‑old Chicago exchange to Dallas, Texas, citing the state’s “pro‑business reputation, low taxes, and light regulation,” and noting Texas has attracted hundreds of HQs including Tesla and Chevron. (ft.com)
   • These corporate moves, combined with the high‑income household flight documented by IRS‑based and state‑level analyses, match Chamath’s thesis of companies and affluent individuals choosing Republican‑run, low‑tax environments.

3. Democratic governments vs. large companies has indeed become a recurring political front, especially on climate and labor—though not the only such front.

   • Democratic‑led states have escalated climate and environmental litigation against oil and gas majors. In 2023, California (a deep‑blue state) filed California v. Big Oil, suing Exxon, Shell, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, BP and the American Petroleum Institute for decades of alleged deception about climate risks. (oag.ca.gov)
   • Multiple other Democratic‑run states (e.g., Connecticut, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, Rhode Island) have brought similar suits or consumer‑protection actions against Exxon and other fossil‑fuel companies, accusing them of misleading investors and the public about climate impacts. (en.wikipedia.org)
   • Republican attorneys general from 19 states went all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court trying to block these Democratic‑state climate lawsuits, but in 2025 the Court refused to intervene—leaving Dem‑run states free to keep suing major energy companies in their own courts. (apnews.com)
   • At the federal level under Biden, Democratic appointees used antitrust and labor regulators to challenge big firms (notably in tech and logistics), and the then‑Democratic‑led NLRB pursued aggressive cases against large employers like Amazon, Tesla, and Starbucks before being hobbled in 2025. (reuters.com)
   • That said, Republican‑run states have also opened major fronts against corporations they consider “woke” or politically adversarial. High‑profile examples include Florida’s Republican government stripping Disney’s longtime special district after the company opposed the Parental Rights in Education (“Don’t Say Gay”) law, leading to Disney v. DeSantis and a years‑long fight over control of the Reedy Creek/Central Florida Tourism district. (en.wikipedia.org) And in Georgia, GOP officials retaliated against Delta and Coca‑Cola after the companies criticized the state’s 2021 voting law, even moving to revoke a tax break for Delta while attacking MLB over its All‑Star‑Game boycott. (en.wikipedia.org)

Why this is judged ‘right’ rather than ‘ambiguous’
Chamath’s statement had two key components:

• (A) A growing Democrats‑vs‑companies axis in politics. This has clearly materialized in the form of blue‑state and Democratic regulatory/litigation offensives against large corporations—especially fossil‑fuel and some tech and logistics giants—even if a parallel (and very visible) GOP‑vs‑corporations axis has also emerged on cultural and ESG issues.
• (B) A sustained pattern of people and businesses moving from Democratic, higher‑tax, more regulated states to Republican‑run, lower‑tax, more laissez‑faire states. Census migration tables, California’s documented exodus of residents and firms, and a string of headline corporate relocations to Texas, Florida, Tennessee, and similar jurisdictions all confirm this trend in the 2020–2025 period. (en.wikipedia.org)

Because both the political‑conflict and migration/relocation dynamics Chamath described have in fact become prominent features of U.S. politics and economics in the years since 2020—despite some important cross‑currents—the prediction is best classified as right rather than wrong, inconclusive, or fundamentally ambiguous.