Sam Bankman-Fried was sentenced on March 28, 2024 in U.S. federal court to 25 years in prison for fraud and related charges, according to multiple reputable sources including major news outlets and the U.S. Department of Justice reporting. This is substantially less than 35 years and far from Bernie Madoff’s 150-year sentence, which is often cited as the benchmark for a de facto life sentence in large financial fraud cases.

Because Chamath explicitly said he would "take the over" on 35 years and compared it to "Madoff level" sentencing, his prediction that SBF would receive a sentence longer than 35 years and effectively Madoff-level was not borne out by the actual 25-year sentence.

Therefore, the prediction is wrong.