Chamath framed the situation in late 2022 as a current recession that he expected to last until roughly mid‑2024, and he advised companies to get to breakeven or have runway through Q1 2025.

Using standard macroeconomic definitions for the U.S., this did not happen:

• The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official arbiter of U.S. business cycles, shows the last recession ending in April 2020, with no new recession at any point from 2022 through at least Q3 2025. (nber.org)
• Revised GDP data removed even the earlier “technical recession” story: updated Commerce Department figures show that U.S. real GDP in Q2 2022 actually grew at a 0.3% annual rate rather than shrinking, meaning the two‑quarters‑down rule of thumb never applied. (axios.com)
• On an annual basis, real U.S. GDP rose 2.1% in 2022, 2.5% in 2023, and 2.8% in 2024, a pattern of continued expansion rather than a multi‑year recession. (bea.gov)
• The labor market stayed historically tight: the unemployment rate averaged about 3.6% in 2023 and 4.0% in 2024, with BLS describing 2024 as a year where unemployment edged up modestly but remained low by historical standards—not the surge in joblessness typical of a recession. (bls.gov)
• Contemporary commentary on 2023–24 macro conditions repeatedly characterized the outcome as a soft landing in which the U.S. “easily skirted a recession” while inflation fell and growth remained solid. (presidency.ucsb.edu)

You can argue there was a "recession" in specific risk assets or venture funding, but in the usual macroeconomic sense Chamath was talking about (guiding CEOs around a broad downturn), the U.S. did not experience a recession running into mid‑2024. Since the underlying recession he anticipated never materialized, it cannot be said to have "ended" around mid‑2024, making his timing call wrong by the standard macro data.