Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
Chamath @ 01:33:58Inconclusive
techai
By roughly five years from now, Microsoft’s global employee count will be higher than it is today (around its ~250,000 peak), despite AI‑driven productivity gains.
I suspect Microsoft's employee base grows.View on YouTube
Explanation

It’s too early to evaluate this prediction.

  • The prediction horizon is “roughly five years from now” relative to the podcast date of June 21, 2025, i.e., around mid‑2030.
  • Today is November 30, 2025, only a few months after the prediction, so we don’t yet know Microsoft’s global employee count in 2030.
  • Current public data only shows Microsoft’s workforce up to recent fiscal years (roughly in the 220,000–250,000 range, depending on year and layoffs), but nothing about the 2030 level yet.

Because the specified five‑year period has not elapsed, the prediction cannot yet be judged; hence the status is inconclusive (too early).