Evidence since 2023 shows that U.S. commercial real estate—especially office—entered exactly the kind of “reckoning” Chamath described: falling values, high vacancies, and financing stress.

• Office vacancies hit record highs. Moody’s data show U.S. office vacancy reaching around 19.6% by Q4 2023 and over 20% across the top 50 metros in 2024, an all‑time high, driven by persistent remote and hybrid work. (aa.com.tr) National Association of Realtors’ 2025 insights still describe office vacancy as being at record levels, and other coverage notes that only a few prime submarkets are recovering while most cities remain under severe strain. (nar.realtor) This matches the prediction of “high vacancies” beginning in this period.

• Office values have fallen sharply. CoStar’s repeat‑sale indices, summarized by the St. Louis Fed, show that by early 2024 U.S. office prices were down about 34% from their peak. (stlouisfed.org) CoStar’s later releases report value‑weighted office pricing down roughly 43–44% from its late‑2021 high by Q3 2024 and Q3 2025, confirming a deep, prolonged drawdown in office valuations. (costargroup.com) These are large, structural declines rather than a mild soft patch.

• Financing and banking stress tied to CRE, particularly office. Reports in 2024–2025 describe a sharp drop in U.S. commercial real estate investment volumes (down more than 50% in 2023, the lowest since 2012), with vacant offices explicitly cited as driving falling values and growing concern for banks holding CRE loans. (aa.com.tr) S&P cut its outlook on several regional banks primarily because of heavy CRE exposure, flagging office loans as especially risky due to falling values and higher vacancies. (investopedia.com) A Reuters analysis in 2025 finds office loans as the main weak spot in regional bank portfolios, with office‑loan delinquencies at a record level (around 11.8%) and banks actively trimming office exposure—clear signs of financing stress. (reuters.com)

• Industry outlooks label office as the most strained CRE segment. Major forecasters like CBRE and Moody’s characterize the 2023–2025 period as a muted or difficult environment for commercial real estate, with office singled out as bearing "the most strain," facing rising vacancy, falling values, and restricted lending appetite. (cbre.com)

Taken together, by and after 2023 the U.S. commercial real estate market—especially the office sector—has in fact undergone a pronounced downturn with exactly the features Chamath anticipated (declining prices, record vacancies, and financing stress). That makes his prediction right in substance and timing ("the beginning of the reckoning" starting in 2023).