ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
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Chamath @ 01:16:37Wrong
marketspolitics
E predicts conditionally that if there is still no clear election winner by late election night, then on the following trading day U.S. markets will shift to a modest risk-off posture (i.e., some decline or defensive move across risk assets).
if we go to bed in another hour and a half, or if we finish this thing in another hour and there is no winner, a clear winner, I think markets will be back to sort of modestly risk off tomorrow.View on YouTube
Explanation

  1. The condition of the prediction was met. By the end of election night (Nov. 3, 2020) and into Nov. 4, there was still no clear presidential winner. Battleground states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, and others were still counting ballots, and major outlets did not project Biden as president‑elect until Nov. 7, 2020.       (politifact.com)

  2. The implied “following trading day” is Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2020. On that day, U.S. equity markets rallied strongly: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 1.2–1.35%, the S&P 500 gained about 2.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped roughly 3.9%. A market recap for Nov. 4 describes U.S. stocks as having surged, led by technology shares, even as the presidential race remained undecided. (eoption.com)

  3. A broad, sizable rally in major stock indices and growth/tech names is characteristic of a risk‑on move, not a modest risk‑off posture. Since the condition (no winner by that night) was satisfied but markets moved in the opposite direction of what was predicted, Chamath’s conditional prediction was wrong.