Chamath @ 01:15:31Inconclusive
aimarkets
Many traditional ‘IT services’ and similar rolled‑up service businesses will face a lack of terminal buyers within roughly the next decade as AI agents become capable enough that much of their value proposition is automated away, depressing exit values for private‑equity roll‑ups in those sectors.
I think the problem is that even if you take some of these kind of May industries and roll them all up, you ultimately have to find a buyer who wants to own that business after you...the fear that I have is that there is no terminal buyer for many of these companies.View on YouTube
Explanation
The prediction is framed on a decade-long horizon ("within roughly the next decade"). As of November 30, 2025, only about a year and a half has passed since the June 21, 2025 podcast release.
While there is active discussion and early evidence that AI may pressure some traditional IT services and outsourcing models, we cannot yet determine:
- whether “many” such rolled‑up IT services businesses will, in aggregate, actually lack terminal buyers, and
- whether exit values for private‑equity roll‑ups in those sectors will be structurally and durably depressed specifically because AI agents automate their value proposition.
Both of those require several years of M&A, IPO, and secondary transaction data across the sector, which simply do not exist yet for the 10‑year window implied. Therefore, the prediction’s outcome cannot be assessed this early, even directionally, beyond noting it as a plausible but unproven long‑term thesis.