The prediction’s time window is 5–10 years starting in 2024, i.e. through roughly 2029–2034, so it has not fully played out yet. We can only judge whether it is on track, not definitively right or wrong.

Early evidence strongly supports the direction of the claim:

• AI hardware profits and value capture: Nvidia’s fiscal 2025 revenue reached $130.5 billion, up 114% year‑on‑year, driven largely by its data center AI business, with record quarterly data center revenue of $35.6 billion and very high profitability. (nvidianews.nvidia.com) Nvidia’s market cap then surpassed $4.5 trillion on the back of massive AI infrastructure deals, putting it among the most valuable companies in the world and clearly showing that “fundamental hardware” providers are capturing enormous financial value. (cnbc.com) AMD likewise is anchoring its strategy on AI data centers, projecting data center revenue growth of about 60% over the next 3–5 years and seeing AI as a $1 trillion data‑center market opportunity, with analysts forecasting steep increases in its data center revenues. (finance.yahoo.com)
• Fundamental AI application‑level experiences: OpenAI’s annualized revenue run‑rate is expected to reach about $20 billion by the end of 2025, with roughly $4.3 billion in revenue in the first half of 2025 alone, even as it continues to run large R&D‑driven losses. (reuters.com) Anthropic, another core application‑layer AI company, reached a $61.5 billion valuation in a 2025 funding round and was said to have an annualized revenue rate of about $1 billion, with investors and analysts projecting the broader generative‑AI market could exceed $1 trillion in revenue within a decade. (cnbc.com) These metrics show that foundational AI application providers are already generating substantial revenue and attracting very large valuations.

However, Chamath’s statement is that “over the next 5 to 10 years” these types of companies will make a lot of money. That is a claim about sustained value capture across a future multi‑year period, not just the first 1–2 years. Significant uncertainties remain (regulation, competitive dynamics, potential bubbles/deflations, shifts in hardware paradigms, etc.), and we are only about 1.5 years into the 5–10‑year window. Because the full period has not elapsed and nothing has clearly falsified the claim, the most accurate evaluation as of November 30, 2025 is that it is too early to say definitively whether the prediction has “come true,” even though the evidence so far is broadly consistent with it.