Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
Chamath @ 01:08:15Inconclusive
marketsai
Chamath agrees that in the coming decade the S&P 493 will see very large dispersion in equity returns between AI adopters (which rebuild software and workflows with AI) and laggards, producing unusually large money‑making opportunities for stock pickers.
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Explanation

The prediction is explicitly about "the coming decade" of performance dispersion within the S&P 493 between AI adopters and laggards. The podcast was released on 21 June 2025, and the current date is 30 November 2025—only a few months later. That is far too short a window to evaluate a decade‑scale claim about structural dispersion in equity returns and the resulting opportunity set for stock pickers. Even if early patterns (e.g., some AI‑exposed names outperforming) can be observed, they cannot yet be reliably attributed to the long‑run effect the prediction describes. Therefore, it is too early to determine whether this forecast is right or wrong.