Chamath’s claim was that broad climate‑disclosure rules would mainly:

1. Create a large “shadow industry” of carbon‑measurement and ESG consulting, and
2. Trigger extended legal fights over what is material,
3. Without producing a major, regulation‑driven reduction in corporate emissions.

Evidence as of late 2025 lines up with this:

• Rapid growth of measurement/ESG advisory industries.
  The global carbon‑accounting software market is already in the tens of billions of dollars and projected to more than double again by decade’s end, with analysts explicitly citing stricter emissions‑reporting and ESG compliance rules as a key driver. (thebusinessresearchcompany.com)
  Similarly, dedicated ESG‑consulting and sustainability‑consulting markets are now multi‑billion‑dollar sectors (≈$10–15B in 2024) growing at double‑digit CAGRs, with reports repeatedly naming tighter ESG and disclosure regulations as major demand drivers. (thebusinessresearchcompany.com)
  This is exactly the kind of compliance/measurement/consulting ecosystem he described.

• Intense legal and political fights over disclosure and materiality.
  The U.S. SEC’s climate‑disclosure rule, adopted in a weakened form that hinges on “material” Scope 1 and 2 emissions and drops mandatory Scope 3, has been stayed amid multiple court challenges; the SEC has now stopped defending it, leaving the rule in limbo. (climateinstitute.edhec.edu)
  California’s climate‑disclosure package (SB 253 and SB 261) has drawn lawsuits from Exxon and business groups, arguing the laws violate the First Amendment and conflict with federal securities law; an appeals court has already paused the climate‑risk‑reporting law while litigation proceeds. (apnews.com)
  These are precisely the “debate materiality when they get caught” dynamics he predicted—years of argument over scope, constitutional limits, and the burdens of disclosure.

• Global emissions trends show no large, regulation‑driven drop so far.
  Mandatory climate‑risk disclosure regimes have expanded rapidly—by 2022, 35 countries representing about 20% of global emissions had some TCFD‑aligned mandatory climate‑disclosure requirements, with the EU’s CSRD alone pulling ~50,000 firms (including many non‑EU companies) into detailed ESG reporting. (systemschangelab.org)
  Yet global energy‑related CO₂ emissions continued to rise, hitting new record highs around 37–38 Gt in 2023–2024, even as disclosure rules proliferated. (lemonde.fr)
  Academic work does find that firms that voluntarily disclose and respond to investor demand for climate information (e.g., via CDP) tend to reduce emissions more than peers, but these firm‑level improvements are incremental and have not yet translated into a clear, large, regulation‑driven fall in aggregate corporate emissions. (sciencedirect.com)

Taken together, the observable “main outcomes” since 2022 are: (a) a booming ecosystem of carbon‑accounting, ESG reporting, and sustainability consulting; (b) ongoing legal and political battles over what must be disclosed and when it is material; and (c) no evident, large, global cut in emissions attributable primarily to these disclosure mandates. While it’s still early and longer‑term effects could evolve, the trajectory so far matches Chamath’s forecast closely enough to judge it right in substance.