Evidence since 2022 shows that the SPAC market both shrank dramatically and became dominated by a small group of repeat sponsors and mid-tier banks, in line with Chamath’s qualitative prediction that “6 or 7 players” would end up doing most of the business.

Key points:

1. Market collapse and consolidation in volume
   • After the 2021 boom (613 SPAC IPOs), the market shrank sharply: only 86 SPAC IPOs in 2022 and 31 in 2023, with many 2020–21 SPACs liquidating or terminating deals instead of merging. This reduced the field of viable sponsors and active vehicles. (en.wikipedia.org)

2. 2024: majority of issuance concentrated in a handful of banks
   • In 2024 there were just 57 SPAC IPOs raising about $9.6B. Cantor Fitzgerald led with 12 IPOs and ~$2.83B in proceeds. (old.spacinsider.com)
   • Cantor, BTIG, and Cohen & Company together priced 26 of the 57 IPOs (≈46% of all SPAC IPOs). (old.spacinsider.com)
   • The top five underwriters raised $6.9B of the $9.6B total—about 72% of all SPAC IPO proceeds—even though there were 24 different bookrunners overall. (old.spacinsider.com)
   → This is exactly the pattern Chamath described: a relatively small cluster of banks handling the bulk of issuance, with many smaller players at the margins.

3. 2025: revival still led by a small cluster of repeat players
   • By mid‑2025, Dealogic data showed 61 SPACs raising $12.4B, on pace for ~$25B for the year—far below 2021 in dollars and deal count, but a clear comeback. Fortune notes that serial sponsors are doing most of that year’s SPAC IPOs. (fortune.com)
   • The underwriting league tables are heavily skewed: Cantor Fitzgerald is the top underwriter with 14 deals (~$3.6B), BTIG is second with 12 deals (~$2.6B), and Santander is third with 5 deals (~$1.3B). (fortune.com)
   • A Reuters/FT-based view shows Santander holding about 7.9% of SPAC IPO bookrunning and ranking fifth, implying that the top four banks each have even larger shares and that a small group of underwriters accounts for a large fraction of all SPAC IPO volume. (reuters.com)
   • The Financial Times explicitly describes a “new cast of boutique banks” (Cohen & Company, D Boral/EF Hutton, Clear Street, Maxim, plus Cantor) as leading the revived SPAC wave, with Cohen & Company and Cantor tied for first in SPAC IPO count and D Boral ranking second in de‑SPAC deals. (ft.com)

4. Interpretation vs. Chamath’s wording
   • Chamath’s numeric detail (“6 or 7 players”) is not literally precise—there are more than 6–7 underwriters active, and SPACInsider still counts 24 bookrunners in 2024. (old.spacinsider.com)
   • However, the economic reality matches the spirit of his prediction: after the boom and bust, SPAC issuance and de‑SPAC activity are dominated by a small, repeat set of specialist sponsors and mid‑tier banks (Cantor, Cohen & Co, BTIG, D Boral/EF Hutton, Santander, Maxim, Clear Street, etc.), which together control the majority of deal flow and proceeds. (old.spacinsider.com)

Given that:

• The overall SPAC universe dramatically contracted, and
• A relatively tight cluster of recurring sponsors and underwriters now accounts for most SPAC IPO and de‑SPAC business,

Chamath’s prediction that the SPAC market would consolidate around a small number of key players has effectively come true in substance, even if the exact count and identity of those players differ from his off‑the‑cuff “6 or 7” and “the ten of us” phrasing.