ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
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Chamath @ 00:37:19Wrong
techaimarkets
In 2023, Google Search will suffer a noticeable decline in relative performance—losing roughly 10–15% of its user search activity to emerging AI-driven competitors and alternative search interfaces—resulting in a material negative impact on its search engagement and profitability.
I think that the biggest potential business loser this year is Google search, as measured by profitability and engagement… I think that the statistics show that Google could lose 10 or 15% of usage to all these other sites… it'll have a material measurable impact to Google.View on YouTube
Explanation

The prediction that in 2023 Google Search would be the “biggest business loser,” suffering a ~10–15% loss of usage to AI competitors with a material hit to engagement and profitability, did not occur.

Profitability and revenue: Alphabet’s 2023 results show the opposite of a material deterioration. Alphabet reported 2023 revenue of $307 billion, up 9% year-over-year, and the CFO explicitly stated that Search remained the largest contributor to revenue growth.​urn0search6] SEC filings further show that “Google Search & other” revenue for the first nine months of 2023 rose to about $127.0 billion from $119.8 billion in the same period of 2022 (roughly 6% growth), indicating higher—not lower—search monetization.​urn1search7]

Usage and market share: Public traffic and market-share data show no 10–15% collapse in Google search usage. Statista/StatCounter-based summaries have Google at around 92% global search market share in both 2022 and 2023, with Bing edging up only slightly (e.g., 2023 figures around Google 91.6%, Bing 3.4%).​urn0search7urn0search2] A Search Engine Land analysis of StatCounter data found that from February 2023 to January 2024 Google’s worldwide share dipped from 93.37% to 91.47% (a loss of ~1.9 percentage points), while Bing’s share rose from 2.81% to 3.43% (a gain of 0.62 points)—a minor shift, far from a 10–15% usage loss.​urn0search8]

Impact of AI competitors: Subsequent analyses show that even after the launch of ChatGPT and other AI tools, Google search volume continued to grow. Business Insider and Search Engine Land report that Google processes more than 5 trillion searches annually, with search queries more than 20% higher than at the time of ChatGPT’s late‑2022 launch—indicating that AI chatbots have so far had minimal impact on Google’s core search volumes.​urn1news12urn1search1]

Because Google Search’s usage, revenue, and profitability all grew rather than suffering a material 10–15% decline in 2023, the prediction is wrong.