Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
markets
Starlink will conduct an IPO in 2023, with a public valuation of at least half of SpaceX’s then–current private valuation (i.e., roughly $75 billion if SpaceX is at $150 billion), providing Elon Musk significant additional liquidity and ‘breathing room.’
Starlink will go public… And my prediction is that the Starlink valuation will be at least half of SpaceX's current private market, 75 billion… I think that this is an obvious outcome in 2020.View on YouTube
Explanation

Starlink did not conduct an IPO in 2023, nor has it gone public as of early/late 2025. Multiple finance and business outlets note that Starlink remains a unit of privately held SpaceX and is not publicly traded, with no confirmed IPO date on the calendar. (nasdaq.com)

Coverage in mid‑2023 explicitly references Chamath Palihapitiya’s prediction on the All‑In podcast that Starlink would IPO in 2023 at a valuation of at least half of SpaceX’s then private valuation, but reports make clear that this remained only a prediction and that Elon Musk would not (and legally could not) commit to such an IPO timeline. (fortune.com)

Subsequent reporting instead describes SpaceX raising liquidity via private share sales and employee tender offers that valued SpaceX itself as high as about $350 billion, while Starlink continues to operate as a non‑public division. (theguardian.com)

Because no Starlink IPO occurred in 2023 at any valuation, the prediction that Starlink would go public in 2023 with a valuation of at least half of SpaceX’s private value (around $75 billion on a $150 billion SpaceX valuation) and provide Musk with that specific form of liquidity and “breathing room” was not fulfilled.