Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
Chamath @ 00:21:24Inconclusive
economymarkets
Around 5–6 years after late 2021 (i.e., by approximately 2026–2027), the increased housing leverage enabled by higher conforming mortgage limits and extracted home equity could lead to a severe economic or financial crisis reminiscent of 1929 in the United States.
and then, you know, to your point, Friedberg they spend it or they invest it or they, you know, it could be a real disaster scenario, um, in 5 or 6 years... No, no, this is more like 1929. Kind of.View on YouTube
Explanation

The prediction timeframe is 5–6 years after late 2021, i.e., roughly 2026–2027. As of the evaluation date November 30, 2025, that window has not yet begun / is only just starting, so we cannot definitively judge whether a 1929-style severe economic or financial crisis caused by housing leverage and equity extraction will occur in that period.

While there have been notable economic events since 2021 (e.g., high inflation in 2022–2023, rapid interest-rate hikes, stress in parts of the banking system), none of these has been widely characterized by mainstream economic or financial historians as a 1929-level systemic collapse of the U.S. economy. However, since the prediction specifically targets outcomes around 2026–2027, and we are still before or at the very start of that horizon, the correct evaluation is that it is too early to tell.

Therefore, the status of the prediction is inconclusive at this time because the forecast period has not fully arrived.