As of November 30, 2025, it is not yet known whether Joe Biden will serve the entire presidential term that would end in January 2029, because that date is still more than three years in the future. Chamath’s prediction is conditional (“if Biden wins, he won’t make it four years”) and can only be definitively evaluated after we observe whether a full term ending in January 2029 is completed. Since that has not yet occurred (or failed to occur), the correctness of the prediction is too early to determine, so it is best classified as inconclusive at this time.