ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
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Chamath @ 00:22:07Wrong
venturetech
Relativity Space will successfully conduct its first launch from Cape Canaveral in the third week of January 2023; if the rocket does not blow up, a roughly $10B launch-services order book will ‘unlock,’ putting the company on a trajectory toward a private valuation comparable to SpaceX, while a failed launch would effectively zero out the company’s value.
Relativity space… is about to do a launch in the third week of January… It has a launch in three weeks. At Cape Canaveral, I think. And we have like a $10 billion order book that gets unlocked… If the rocket does not blow up. There's a $10 billion order book, and this company is now on a trajectory to be as valued as SpaceX. And if it doesn't, it goes to zero.View on YouTube
Explanation

Key parts of Chamath’s prediction did not come true:

  1. Timing and outcome of the first launch. Relativity’s first and only Terran 1 launch from Cape Canaveral did not occur in the third week of January 2023. After scrubbed attempts on March 8 and 11, the rocket finally launched on March 23, 2023, from LC‑16 at Cape Canaveral, reached space but failed to reach orbit due to a second‑stage problem, and Terran 1 was then retired. (en.wikipedia.org)

  2. “$10B order book” unlocking and SpaceX‑like valuation. Public reporting around Relativity’s contracts shows a much smaller backlog: about $1.2B in Terran R launch contracts as of mid‑2022, growing to roughly $1.6B by April 2023 and about $2.9B in backlog by 2025 – nowhere near the ~$10B he described. (en.wikipedia.org) Relativity’s last disclosed funding round valued it at around $4.2B, and later commentary still places it in the single‑digit billions, while SpaceX has been valued on the order of $350B in recent private share sales. (en.wikipedia.org) The company therefore did not “unlock” a $10B launch‑services book nor move onto a valuation trajectory comparable to SpaceX.

  3. “If it doesn’t, it goes to zero.” The Terran 1 mission failed to reach orbit, yet Relativity did not go to zero. Instead, the company retired Terran 1 and shifted strategy to focus “all in” on the larger Terran R, with billions of dollars in signed contracts, a planned first launch no earlier than 2026, and ongoing operations under a new CEO and a workforce of around 1,200 employees. (en.wikipedia.org)

Because the launch timing was off, the post‑launch outcomes bore little resemblance to either of Chamath’s binary scenarios, the order book never approached $10B, and the company neither rocketed to SpaceX‑like valuation nor collapsed to zero, this prediction is best classified as wrong.