Evidence from the 2023–24 cycle shows that Ron DeSantis’ position deteriorated sharply from early‑2023 expectations while Nikki Haley’s standing improved and she ultimately became the main non‑Trump contender.

• Starting point (early 2023): In February 2023 Monmouth found GOP voters essentially split between DeSantis and Trump (33% each) with Haley at just 1%, making DeSantis a co‑frontrunner and Haley a marginal figure.(monmouth.edu) Media and polling throughout early 2023 consistently framed DeSantis as Trump’s strongest alternative.(cnbc.com)
• Poll trajectory in 2023: By late 2023, national and state polls showed DeSantis sliding while Haley rose into double digits. A Marquette national survey of Republican voters in Nov. 2023 had Trump 54%, with DeSantis and Haley tied at 12%—a rise for Haley and a decline for DeSantis since March.(law.marquette.edu) A Wisconsin Marquette poll from June→Oct./Nov. 2023 showed DeSantis dropping from 30% to 18% while Haley climbed from 3% to 11%.(marquette.edu) A Quinnipiac poll in Dec. 2023 likewise found Haley catching DeSantis nationally, both at 11%, with DeSantis down from far higher levels earlier in the year.(axios.com)
• Primary results and candidate status in 2024: In the Iowa caucuses Trump won with 51%; DeSantis was a distant second at ~21% and Haley close behind at ~19%, far from DeSantis’s early “co‑frontrunner” status.(en.wikipedia.org) DeSantis then ended his campaign on Jan. 21, 2024—before New Hampshire—and endorsed Trump, with coverage explicitly noting he had once been seen as Trump’s strongest challenger.(cnbc.com)
• Haley’s emergence as main alternative: After DeSantis dropped out, Haley became the sole major challenger to Trump. She took 43% to Trump’s 54% in the New Hampshire primary, clearly occupying the runner‑up lane.(en.wikipedia.org) She later won the District of Columbia primary by nearly 30 points over Trump, her first primary victory and the only GOP primary Trump lost in 2016 or 2024,(en.wikipedia.org) and went on to win Vermont as well before suspending her campaign.(nypost.com)

Relative to their positions at the start of 2023, DeSantis badly underperformed initial frontrunner expectations and exited early, while Haley rose from low single digits to become Trump’s principal challenger and secure actual primary wins. That matches Chamath’s effective bet: “long Nikki Haley, short Ron DeSantis.”